Notas sobre el ajuste de una tendencia logística
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Abstract
Este artículo fue escaneado por la Biblioteca Ecuatoriana Aurelio Espinosa Pólit.
Muy a menudo sucede que en un trabajo econométrico se hace necesario proyectar una serie cronológica cuya tendencia secular se caracteriza por un crecimiento acelerado durante los primeros períodos, un crecimiento retardado en períodos, un crecimiento retardado en períodos posteriores hasta hacerse nulo en el largo plazo. También sucede generalmente que el problema de proyectar una serie con ese comportamiento se resuelve ajustando una exponencial de algún tipo con lo cual se obtienen proyecciones algo sobreestimadas.
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