Productivity in the Ecuadorian manufacturing sector: a spatial exploration with Machine Learning Una exploración espacial con Machine Learning

Main Article Content

Juan Esteban González Pillalaza

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial distribution of Ecuadorian manufacturing productivity in 2023 using unsupervised machine learning. K-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms reveal a binary macrostructure and a quaternary substructure of cantons based on their productivity, specialization, and diversity. The results show a marked territorial gap and productive heterogeneity that challenges traditional agglomeration theories. It concludes that an evidence-based industrial policy requires differentiated territorial diagnoses for targeted interventions, thereby moving beyond homogeneous policy approaches.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
González Pillalaza, J. E. (2026). Productivity in the Ecuadorian manufacturing sector: a spatial exploration with Machine Learning: Una exploración espacial con Machine Learning. Revista Economía, 78(127), 75–99. https://doi.org/10.29166/economa.v78i127.9027
Section
Estudios Socioeconómicos
Author Biography

Juan Esteban González Pillalaza, Flacso Ecuador

Economista graduado en la Universidad Central del Ecuador. Magíster en Estudios Urbanos, mención en políticas y planificación del territorio de la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (Flacso-Ecuador). Actualmente se desempeña en proyectos de investigación relacionado a la ciencia regional, economía urbana, uso de machine learning y modelos econométricos.

References

Acosta, A. (2012). Breve historia económica del Ecuador. Quito: Corporación Editora Nacional.

Alpaydin, E. (2020). Introduction to Machine Learning. London, England: The MIT Press.

Amara, M. y Thabet, K. (2019). Firm and Regional Factors of Productivity: A Multilevel Analysis of Tunisian Manufacturing. Annals of Regional Science, 63(1), 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00168-019-00918-X/TABLES/12

Arghoty, A. (2013). Nivel de utilización de Tecnologías de Información y Comunicación (TIC) en las PYMES de Atuntaqui. En H. Jácome y K. King (Eds.), Estudios industriales de la micro, pequeña y mediana empresa (pp. 248-299). FLACSO, Sede Ecuador y Ministerio de Industrias y Productividad.

Arrow, K. (1962). The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing. The Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155–173. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295952.

Balland, P., Boschma, R., Crespo, J., y Rigby, D. (2019). Smart specialization policy in the European Union: relatedness, knowledge complexity and regional diversification. Regional Studies, 53 (9), 1252-1268. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2018.1437900

Balland, P., Broekel, T., Diodato, D., Giuliani, E., Hausmann R., O'Clery, N., y Rigby, D. (2022). The new paradigm of economic complexity. Research Policy, 51(3), 104450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104450

Beaudry, C. y Schiffauerova, A. (2009). Who’s right, Marshall or Jacobs? The localization versus urbanization debate. Research Policy, 38(2), 318-337.

Boschma, R. (2015). Towards an Evolutionary Perspective on Regional Resilience. Regional Studies, 49 (5), 733-751.

CEPAL. (2024). Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2024/ Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and The Caribbean 2024. https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/9e2080ce-41d9-4d2d-9386-fb4a1f13a071/content

Cerulli, G. (2023). Fundamentals of Supervised Machine Learning: with applications in Python, R and Stata. Switzerland AG: Springer Cham.

Combes, P., y Gobillon, L. (2015). The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies. En G. Duranton, J. Henderson y W. Strange (Eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics 5 (1ra ed., pp. 247–348). Elsevier.

Creamer, C. (2022). Estado e industrialización en el Ecuador, 1948-2021. RIRA, 7(1), 57-122. https://doi.org/10.18800/revistaira.202201.003

Cui, Y., Niu, Y., Ren, Y., Zhang, S., y Zhao, L. (2024). A Model to Analyze Industrial Clusters to Measure Land Use Efficiency in China . Land, 13(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/land13071070

Duranton, G., y Puga, D. (2001). Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, and the Life Cycle of Products. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1454–1477.

Duranton, G., y Puga, D. (2004). Micro-Foundations of Urban Agglomeration Economies. En J. Henderson y J. Thisse (Eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics 4 (1ra ed., pp. 2063–2117). Elsevier.

Dvouletý, O. y Blažková, I. (2021). Exploring Firm-level and Sectoral Variation in Total Factor Productivity (TFP). International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, 27(6), 1526-1547. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJEBR-11-2020-0744

Glaeser, E., Kallal H., Scheinkman J., y Shleifer A. (1992). Growth in Cities. Journal of Political Economy, 100(6), 1126–1152. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138829

Gonzales de Olarte, E. (2021). Economía regional y urbana: el espacio importa. Lima: Fondo editorial Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

Guevara, G. (2021). Determinants of Manufacturing Micro Firms’ Productivity in Ecuador. Do Industry and Canton Where They Operate Matter? Regional Science Policy and Practice, 13(4), 1215–1248. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12399

Guevara, G., Riou, S., y Autant-Bernard, C. (2018). Agglomeration externalities in Ecuador: do urbanization and tertiarization matter? Regional Studies, 53 (5), 706-719. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2018.1470325

Horobet, A., Vrinceanu, G., Popescu, C. y Belascu, L. (2021). Business Dynamics in Recovery Times: A Comparative Perspective on Manufacturing Firms’ Performance in the European Union. Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy. 9(1), 122-136. https://www.managementdynamics.ro/index.php/journal/article/view/404

Jacobs, J. (1969). The Economies of Cities. Random House.

Jagódka, M. (2025). Typification of Polish regions based on human capital and innovativeness: a cluster analysis approach. Transforming Government: People, Process and Police, 19(3), 614-637. https://doi.org/10.1108/TG-02-2025-0050

Kiesel, C., y Dannenberg, P. (2023). Special Economic Zones in the Global South: Between integrated spaces and enclaves – a literature review. DIE ERDE – Journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin, 154(1-2), 5–19. https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-2023-606

Kopczewska, K. (2022). Spatial machine learning: new opportunities for regional science. The Annals of Regional Science, 68, 713-755. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-021-01101-x

Lavoratori, K. y Castellani, D. (2021). Too close for comfort? Microgeography of agglomeration economies in the United Kingdom. Regional Science, 61(5), 1002-1028. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12531

Lin, H., Li, Y., y Yang, C. (2011). Agglomeration and productivity: Firm-level evidence from China's textile industry. China Economic Review, 22(3), 313-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.03.003

Marshall, A. (1890). Principles of Economics. Macmillan.

Martínez-Victoria, M., Maté-Sánchez, M., Lansink, A. (2017). Spatial determinants of productivity growth on agri-food Spanish firms: a comparison between cooperatives and investor-owned firms: a comparison between cooperatives and investor-owned firms. Agricultural Economics, 49(2), 213-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12410

Matute, K. y Muñoz, E. (2024). Análisis multivariante de factores socioeconómicos en PYMES: modelos de regresión machine learning. Universidad, Ciencia y Tecnología, 28 (125), 142-152. https://doi.org/10.47460/uct.v28i125.864

Ministerio de Producción, Comercio Exterior, Inversiones y Pesca. (2023). Boletín de cifras del sector productivo, diciembre 2023. Gobierno de Ecuador https://www.produccion.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Boletin-Cifras-Productivas-DIC-2023.pdf

Ministerio de Producción, Comercio Exterior, Inversiones y Pesca. (2024). Boletín de cifras del sector productivo, diciembre 2024. Gobierno de Ecuador https://www.produccion.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/VFBoletinProduccion-DIC2024.pdf

Müller, A. y Guido, S. (2017). Introduction to Machine Learning with Python. Sebastopol: O’Reilly.

Nelson, R., y Winter, S. (1982) . An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Phelps, N., Atienza, M., y Arias, M. (2015). Encore for the Enclave: The Changing Nature of the Industry Enclave with Illustrations from the Mining Industry in Chile. Economic Geography, 91(2), 119–146. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecge.12086

Pike, A., Rodríguez-Pose, A., y Tomaney, J. (2017). Local and Regional Development. London: Routledge.

Raschka, S., Liu, Y., y Mirjalili, V. (2022). Machine Learning with PyTorch and Scikit-Learn. Birmingham: Packt Publishing Ltd.

Rodríguez-Cruz, X. (2024). Análisis de la eficiencia y rentabilidad de las empresas manufactureras ecuatorianas: Una aplicación de algoritmos no supervisados. Cuestiones Económicas, 34(2), 164-212, https://doi.org/10.47550/34.2.5

Romer, P. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037

Ruiz, P. (2013). Indicadores de productividad de la industria ecuatoriana. En H. Jácome y K. King (Eds.), Estudios industriales de la micro, pequeña y mediana empresa (1ra ed., pp. 45-80). Flacso y Ministerio de Industrias y Productividad.

Sanfilippo, M., y Seric, A. (2015). Spillovers from agglomerations and inward FDI: a multilevel analysis on sub-Saharan African firms. Review of World Economics, 152, 147-176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-015-0237-6

Singh, D. (2021). Cluster Space Among Labor Productivity, Urbanization, and Agglomeration of Industries in Hungary. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13, 1008-1027. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-021-00726-9

Tao, J., Ho, C., Luo, S. y Sheng Y. (2019). Agglomeration economies in creative industries. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 77, 141-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.04.002

Torres-Gutiérrez, T., Correa-Quezada, R., Álvarez-García, J., y del Río-Rama, M. (2019). Agglomeration Economies: An Analysis of the Determinants of Employment in the Cities of Ecuador. Symmetry 2019. https://doi.org/10.3390/SYM11111421

Ward, J. H. (1963). Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(301), 236-244.

Zollanvari, A. (2023). Machine Learning with Python : theory and implementation. Switzerland AG: Springer.