(In)security and elections: proclivity of the electorate to favor radical options, in Ecuador’s 2023 referendum and early elections

Abstract

Security, in its various meanings, is one of the most significant elements for the electorate when casting their vote. The constitutional referendum of February 2023, as well as the first round of the early general elections held in August of the same year, offer an opportunity to explore this relationship. Ecuador has experienced a spiral of insecurity in recent years, with the intentional homicide rate increasing by more than 500% between 2019 and 2023. This deterioration in security conditions has differentiated subnational manifestations. Thus, for example, Esmeraldas becomes the Ecuadorian canton with more than one-hundred thousand inhabitants with the highest homicide rate, over 75 per one-hundred thousand inhabitants, which also places it in third place among the epicenters of homicide in Latin America. This research shows, by using descriptive statistics that cross-reference homicide rates with electoral results, the effect of insecurity on the voters’ proclivity to favor more radical proposals and candidacies.