Development and preliminary testing of a simple seasonal fire weather index for victoria, Australia
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Abstract
The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the most common tool to investigate fire weather in Australia. However, there have been scarce advances in the creation of fire weather metrics in this country since the FFDI development in 1967. This study aims to test a simple fire weather index for Victoria, Australia. The proposed index “Victorian Seasonal Bushfire Index” (VSBI) incorporates knowledge of local and remote fire weather drivers for this region. The index was designed for Victoria since it is one of the most bushfire prone regions in the world. The VSBI formulation is based on local fire weather data and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indicators. The index is a seasonal alternative to the FFDI with a simple compilation. Using weather stations observations, the VSBI and seasonal metrics of the FFDI show an increasing trend in fire danger in Victoria during the period 1974-2010. Additionally, VSBI and FFDI show strong correlations during the antecedent (September-October-November) and concurrent (December-January-February) bushfire seasons. Moreover, the VSBI shows a strong fire weather seasonal forecasting skill. The VSBI fire activity forecasting skill is moderate. These results show that a simple index like the VSBI can be a useful alternative to traditional fire weather metrics in Australia
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