Diferencias en el clima que produce incendios forestales y de olas de calor en Victoria, Australia
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Los incendios forestales y las olas de calor son peligrosas amenazas naturales en Australia. Ambos riesgos se caracterizan por anomalías de la temperatura del aire superiores al promedio climatológico. Sin embargo, el clima de incendios forestales y el de olas de calor se diferencian en algunos otros aspectos climatológicos. Este artículo compara los patrones del clima, asociados a estos dos tipos de eventos climatológicos extremos, en el estado de Victoria, Australia. Los resultados muestran que solo el 13% de los incendios forestales, en esta región, co-ocurren con olas de calor. Desde un punto de vista sinóptico, la principal diferencia entre los dos eventos es la circulación de un frente frío y sus fuertes vientos asociados, en el día en que los incendios forestales ocurren. Adicionalmente, las olas de calor se caracterizan por patrones de humedad por sobre el promedio climatológico en el continente australiano, mientras que el clima de incendios forestales se presenta cuando en Australia existe sequía. En promedio, un patrón de “El Niño” persiste en el Océano Pacífico Tropical cuando ocurren incendios forestales en Victoria. Por otra parte, las olas de calor en esta región ocurren generalmente en condiciones neutrales del fenómeno de “El Niño”. Los análisis de esta investigación usaron datos de estaciones meteorológicas y también de “reanálisis”. Estos hallazgos sugieren que usar patrones de fenómenos climatológicos remotos (como “El Niño”) asociados a incendios forestales, pueden incidir en mejorar las predicciones, por temporada del clima, que produce incendios forestales.
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