Comprehensive analysis of the development potential of the U and M1 reservoirs in Block 86 of the Oriente Basin using numerical simulation tools

Abstract

The progressive decline in Ecuador’s oil production, intensified by the planned closure of Block 43 (ITT), has created an urgent need to explore new hydrocarbon prospects. Block 86, located in the southeastern edge of the Oriente Basin, has been identified as a promising area, although it presents high uncertainty due to limited geological access and the lack of 3D seismic data. This study aimed to assess the development potential of the "U" and "M1" reservoirs through the integration of geological, petrophysical, and numerical simulation data. Five exploratory wells (Amazonas001, Balsaura001, Conambo001, Huito001, and Marañón001) were analyzed to calculate porosity, water saturation, clay volume, and permeability using well log data. A static geological model and a dynamic model by structure were constructed. The original oil in place (OOIP) was estimated at 1.559 MMBLS. Thirty pilot wells were proposed, strategically located based on favorable petrophysical properties. The Conambo-Huito field showed the highest potential, with an estimated recovery factor of 0,5%, followed by Balsaura and Amazonas. The projected cumulative oil production over 10 years is 10,5 million barrels. The results confirm that Block 86 especially the Conambo-Huito structure has strong potential to contribute to Ecuador’s energy security. However, key limitations, such as the absence of 3D seismic data and laboratory core analysis, must be addressed to improve forecast accuracy. The study demonstrates that numerical reservoir simulation is a valuable strategic tool for national oil development planning.